2026 season · in progress
Las Vegas Raiders, 2026: game by game
The Raiders went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Dolphins | W 27–13 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 26–14 | 69% | +31 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.25 | +9.3 |
| Judgment calls | +0.17 | +9.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.14 | +2.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | 0.0 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | −1.9 |
| Drops | −0.08 | −3.6 |