luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Los Angeles Chargers, 2026: game by game

The Chargers went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Cardinals L 14–26 51% −51
Week 2 vs Raiders L 14–26 31% −31

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Drops+0.17+6.9
Judgment calls+0.08−0.1
Injuries+0.04+1.5
Kicks−0.07−4.6
3rd & 4th downs−0.13−1.0