2024 NFL season · final
Regression candidates for 2025
Due to fall back in 2025: the Vikings, the Lions and the Chiefs, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2024. Due to bounce back: the 49ers, the Jets and the Jaguars.
The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology
Due to fall back
Won more than their coin flips, 2024.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vikings | 14–3 | 10.1 | +3.9 | 11.7 | 9–1 | 9–8 |
 Lions | 15–2 | 11.3 | +3.7 | 12.2 | 7–2 | 9–8 |
 Chiefs | 15–2 | 11.3 | +3.7 | 12.1 | 11–0 | 6–11 |
 Rams | 10–7 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 8.7 | 8–5 | 12–5 |
 Seahawks | 10–7 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 8.3 | 6–2 | 14–3 |
 Cowboys | 7–10 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6.1 | 5–5 | 7–9–1 |
 Steelers | 10–7 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 7.2 | 6–4 | 10–7 |
 Commanders | 12–5 | 10.8 | +1.2 | 12.0 | 8–4 | 5–12 |
Due to bounce back
Won fewer than their coin flips, 2024.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 49ers | 6–11 | 9.5 | −3.5 | 10.5 | 2–6 | 12–5 |
 Jets | 5–12 | 8.2 | −3.2 | 7.4 | 3–7 | 3–14 |
 Jaguars | 4–13 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 5.4 | 3–10 | 13–4 |
 Packers | 11–6 | 13.2 | −2.2 | 12.4 | 5–5 | 9–7–1 |
 Giants | 3–14 | 5.0 | −2.0 | 4.0 | 1–8 | 4–13 |
 Patriots | 4–13 | 6.0 | −2.0 | 4.3 | 3–6 | 14–3 |
 Broncos | 10–7 | 11.9 | −1.9 | 7.3 | 1–6 | 14–3 |
 Bengals | 9–8 | 10.8 | −1.8 | 10.9 | 4–7 | 6–11 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
2024 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019