2025 NFL season · final
Regression candidates for 2026
Due to fall back in 2026: the 49ers, the Steelers and the Vikings, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2025. Due to bounce back: the Chiefs, the Lions and the Ravens.
The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology
Due to fall back
Won more than their coin flips, 2025.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2026 so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 49ers | 12–5 | 8.2 | +3.8 | 11.8 | 5–1 | 2–0 |
 Steelers | 10–7 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 7.8 | 7–3 | 1–1 |
 Vikings | 9–8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 7.5 | 5–4 | 2–0 |
 Chargers | 11–6 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 10.3 | 6–2 | 0–2 |
 Patriots | 14–3 | 11.6 | +2.4 | 12.0 | 7–3 | 1–1 |
 Texans | 12–5 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 8.2 | 7–5 | 0–2 |
 Jaguars | 13–4 | 11.4 | +1.6 | 8.6 | 6–3 | 1–1 |
 Bears | 11–6 | 9.4 | +1.6 | 7.7 | 7–4 | 1–1 |
Due to bounce back
Won fewer than their coin flips, 2025.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
2025 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019