luckadjusted

Super Bowl 2025 · February 8, 2026

Seahawks vs Patriots, Super Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Patriots 29–13, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

The Seahawks won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 63% favorites.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 29
New England Patriots 13

February 8, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −4.5

Luck index +70 Seahawks very lucky · −70 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 29 NE 13
  2. 2 SEA 33 NE 24
  3. 3 SEA 26 NE 23
  4. 4 SEA 24 NE 26
  5. 5 SEA 22 NE 26
  6. 6 SEA 13 NE 20
  7. 7 SEA 17 NE 27
  8. 8 SEA 36 NE 51
  9. 9 SEA 16 NE 36
  10. 10 SEA 6 NE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Seahawks won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 71% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.

41 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.14 worse by 0.14
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.34 +0.04 better by 0.37
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.34 +0.15 worse by 0.49
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.08 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 30% of them, Patriots 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+4.8%
Seahawks by 9–168.2%
Seahawks by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation3.6%
Patriots by 1–824.2%
Patriots by 9–1620.3%
Patriots by 17+24.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Seahawks by 16, without the luck Seahawks by 21.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 25 yards, Patriots 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:09 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 5:24 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Dell Pettus), 10 yards +3% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 1:23 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 5 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% SEA +1.2 pts
Q4 2:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NE +6.7 pts
Q4 0:53 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.1 pts
Q4 0:47 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:07 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q2 12:04 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% NE SEA: Field goal
3 Q2 5:09 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedK. Walker dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 151 catchable balls before this +8% NE SEA: Punt
4 Q2 4:19 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% NE NE: Punt
5 Q2 3:09 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% SEA NE: Punt
6 Q3 7:46 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedD. Douglas dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 162 catchable balls before this +7% SEA NE: Punt
7 Q3 3:49 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedK. Boutte dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 98 catchable balls before this +6% SEA NE: Punt
8 Q3 0:16 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SEA NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Seahawks by 16
Luck in points
5.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 21.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 30% · Patriots 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2025 games · Seahawks · Patriots