49ers unlucky 22 
Chiefs lucky 25 Stolen · Chiefs win 16% of replays 2023 NFL season · February 11, 2024
Super Bowl 2023: who deserved to win
1 of 1 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chiefs beat the 49ers 25–22 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
49ers unlucky 22 Chiefs lucky 25 Stolen · Chiefs win 16% of replays Super Bowl 2023 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 25–22 vs 49ers | 46% | 16% | Lucky |
Luck ranking, super bowl
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 25–22 vs 49ers | 16% | +84 |
| 2 | 49ers | L 22–25 @ Chiefs | 84% | −84 |