Chiefs 17 
Ravens 10 Coin flip · Chiefs win 49% of replays 2023 NFL season · January 28, 2024
Conference championships 2023: who deserved to win
1 of 2 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chiefs beat the Ravens 17–10 in a game they win 49% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Chiefs 17 Ravens 10 Coin flip · Chiefs win 49% of replays 
Lions 31 
49ers 34 Deserved · 49ers win 60% of replays Conference championships 2023 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 17–10 @ Ravens | 37% | 49% | Coin flip |
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 17–10 @ Ravens | 49% | +51 |
| 2 | 49ers | W 34–31 vs Lions | 60% | +40 |
| 3 | Lions | L 31–34 @ 49ers | 40% | −40 |
| 4 | Ravens | L 10–17 vs Chiefs | 51% | −51 |