luckadjusted

NFC Championship 2022 · January 29, 2023

49ers at Eagles, NFC Championship 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the 49ers 31–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:28 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 7
Philadelphia Eagles 31

January 29, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +9 Eagles about even · −9 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 SF 20 PHI 14
  2. 2 SF 6 PHI 9
  3. 3 SF 14 PHI 19
  4. 4 SF 19 PHI 27
  5. 5 SF 20 PHI 30
  6. 6 SF 9 PHI 22
  7. 7 SF 13 PHI 30
  8. 8 SF 13 PHI 33
  9. 9 SF 7 PHI 31
  10. 10 SF 7 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 9% of them, Eagles 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+0.4%
49ers by 9–162.1%
49ers by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Eagles by 1–817.5%
Eagles by 9–1624.9%
Eagles by 17+47.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 24, without the luck Eagles by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: 49ers 11 for 81 yards, Eagles 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:23 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q1 2:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 14 yards +3% SF +1.3 pts
Q1 0:15 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles, 10 yards 0% SF +0.9 pts
Q2 14:12 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 3 yards +5% PHI +1.3 pts
Q2 4:58 Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 5 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 4:36 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 1:55 Illegal Contact on the 49ers, 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:26 Face Mask on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 10 yards +3% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 13:33 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 4:05 Roughing the Kicker on the 49ers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +2.7 pts
Q3 2:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Talanoa Hufanga), 4 yards +1% PHI +1.1 pts
Q3 0:43 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Charlie Woerner), 10 yards 0% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.4 pts
Q4 8:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 14 yards 0% PHI +1.3 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:28 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:03 The 49ers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI SF: Punt
4 Q1 5:34 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% SF PHI: Punt
5 Q2 7:13 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% SF PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:39 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4071 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:19 The 49ers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI SF: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 6% · Eagles 94%

Final margin
Eagles by 24
Luck in points
14.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 9% · Eagles 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2022 games · 49ers · Eagles

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