luckadjusted

AFC Championship 2022 · January 29, 2023

Bengals at Chiefs, AFC Championship 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Bengals 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: drops alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:17 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards, worth 20 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Kansas City Chiefs 23

January 29, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −2

Luck index +33 Chiefs lucky · −33 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 3, Chiefs win 7.

  1. 1 CIN 23 KC 9
  2. 2 CIN 28 KC 21
  3. 3 CIN 24 KC 21
  4. 4 CIN 17 KC 19
  5. 5 CIN 24 KC 29
  6. 6 CIN 24 KC 31
  7. 7 CIN 19 KC 30
  8. 8 CIN 21 KC 35
  9. 9 CIN 27 KC 45
  10. 10 CIN 13 KC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 33% of them, Chiefs 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+4.7%
Bengals by 9–168.9%
Bengals by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.7%
Chiefs by 1–825.2%
Chiefs by 9–1620.4%
Chiefs by 17+19.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • H. Butker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. McPherson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 45 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 9 for 71 yards, Chiefs 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:15 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q1 7:22 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q1 6:27 Illegal Touch Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q1 0:41 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CIN +3.4 pts
Q2 1:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 20 yards, wiping out the play +11% CIN +4.6 pts
Q3 3:33 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% KC +3.0 pts
Q3 3:05 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 2:08 Taunting on the Chiefs, 15 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 10:29 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% KC +2.0 pts
Q4 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yards +4% KC +1.0 pts
Q4 4:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 8 yards +2% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 1:27 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Burrow), 9 yards +15% KC +1.4 pts
Q4 0:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards +20% KC +1.8 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:30 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% KC CIN: Field goal
2 Q3 9:59 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +13% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 4:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +15% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Bengals converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +17% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:33 T. Kelce dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 152 catchable balls before this +11% CIN KC: Punt
6 Q4 1:27 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Burrow), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 3196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +15% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q4 1:03 The Bengals converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +18% CIN CIN: Punt
8 Q4 0:17 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 419 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +20% KC KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Watson (KC WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN T), out · 1.0 pts
  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Cappa (CIN G), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 38% · Chiefs 62%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
2.1 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 33% · Chiefs 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2022 games · Bengals · Chiefs

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