luckadjusted

Divisional round 2022 · January 21, 2023

Giants at Eagles, Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 38–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 72% favorites.

Final

New York Giants 7
Philadelphia Eagles 38

January 21, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −8

Luck index +15 Eagles about even · −15 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 24 PHI 14
  2. 2 NYG 20 PHI 17
  3. 3 NYG 17 PHI 20
  4. 4 NYG 16 PHI 21
  5. 5 NYG 20 PHI 27
  6. 6 NYG 17 PHI 27
  7. 7 NYG 16 PHI 30
  8. 8 NYG 24 PHI 41
  9. 9 NYG 13 PHI 34
  10. 10 NYG 20 PHI 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 15% of them, Eagles 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.5%
Giants by 9–164.8%
Giants by 1–88.7%
Level after regulation2.4%
Eagles by 1–825.9%
Eagles by 9–1620.7%
Eagles by 17+36.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 31, without the luck Eagles by 24.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Giants 1 for 5 yards, Eagles 5 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:55 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 1:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Jarrad Davis), 5 yards 0% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 1:40 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q4 8:18 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 5:57 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYG +1.3 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.9 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:54 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 6:29 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% PHI NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 5:46 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% PHI NYG: Turnover
6 Q1 4:26 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +3% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q1 0:34 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% PHI NYG: Punt
8 Q2 14:55 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% NYG PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Anderson (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 31
Luck in points
6.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 24.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 15% · Eagles 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2022 games · Giants · Eagles

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