Divisional round 2022 · January 21, 2023
Jaguars at Chiefs, Divisional round 2022: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Chiefs about even · −5 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Chiefs win 9.
- 1 JAX 26 KC 19
- 2 JAX 21 KC 24
- 3 JAX 23 KC 30
- 4 JAX 17 KC 27
- 5 JAX 18 KC 31
- 6 JAX 20 KC 36
- 7 JAX 14 KC 33
- 8 JAX 14 KC 37
- 9 JAX 16 KC 43
- 10 JAX 7 KC 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 5% of them, Chiefs 95%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 3.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 63.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Butker, 50 yds made · 69% expected
- R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 84% expected
- H. Butker, 50 yds made · 69% expected
- R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 40 yards, Chiefs 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:04 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards | +3% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:09 | Tripping on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +5% KC +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:50 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Arden Key), 15 yards | +4% KC +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards | +4% JAX +1.7 pts |
| Q4 13:04 | False Start on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:48 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Corey Peters), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% KC +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:55 | Taunting on the Chiefs, 15 yards | +2% JAX +1.4 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:29 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:17 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% JAX | KC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:12 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +6% JAX | KC: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 9:48 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Corey Peters), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2125 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 | +5% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 6:52 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% JAX | JAX: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 6:13 | The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% JAX | JAX: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 6:07 | E. Engram dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 95 catchable balls before this | +6% KC | JAX: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 5:36 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% KC | JAX: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 30% · Chiefs 70%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 5% · Chiefs 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2022 games · 
Jaguars · 
Chiefs
More from Divisional round 2022
- Giants at Eagles PHI 38–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bengals at Bills CIN 27–10 · replay 76% for the winner
- Cowboys at 49ers SF 19–12 · replay 75% for the winner